Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
